Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Valid Aug 14/0000 UTC thru Aug 17/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation including final preferences
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

The 00Z deterministic guidance continues to come into better
alignment with the evolution of shortwave troughing across the
central U.S. by Wednesday into Thursday at 500 mb. The consensus
is for a strong closed low, currently over Kansas/Oklahoma, to
weaken as it lifts toward the northeast. Meanwhile, a second
shortwave should amplify southeastward toward the Plains from
Montana Tuesday into Thursday. At the surface, ensemble scatter
low plots agree more with a 00Z UKMET/ECMWF blend with a surface
low tracking from Missouri on Wednesday to lower Michigan late
Thursday compared to the slower 00Z GFS/NAM. Elsewhere, convergent
trends with a departing closed low from the Northeast and upper
trough approaching the Pacific Northwest through Friday morning
support a general model blend. A 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET blend is
recommended as an overall preference for the lower 48, with less
weight on the 00Z GFS across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes for
Thursday into Friday.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto