Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Valid Aug 20/0000 UTC thru Aug 23/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend, weighted to 00Z GFS
Confidence: Slightly above average

Models have gradually come into better agreement, although there
are some slight differences in timing with the troughs that will
be progressing across the northern half of the CONUS. Overall, the
variations in the mass fields from the deterministic models are
contained well within the ensemble spread envelope. Therefore, a
general blend is favored. Differences in model QPF are not too
large. Greater weight was given to the 00Z GFS based on minor
timing trends, greater rainfall in the Southwest (associated with
the monsoon) and the Southeast (higher moisture levels), and a
more southwesterly placement of the QPF maximum associated with
MCS activity in the Southern Plains. These subtle differences seem
to fit the synoptic pattern better.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers