Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1259 AM EDT Thu Aug 23 2018

Valid Aug 23/0000 UTC thru Aug 26/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Average

For most of the larger scale systems, a general model compromise
should suffice.  This includes the 00z NAM, which has shown a
significant run-to-run change from its 12z run and is now notably
slower with the shortwave trough lifting across the Great Lakes
into eastern Ontario on Saturday, as well as the upstream trough
moving across central Canada and the northern Great Plains at that
time.  This shift puts the NAM into much better agreement with the
00z GFS, UKMet, as well as the 12z ECMWF and Canadian Global. 
Further upstream, there is a fair amount of model spread with
respect to the timing of the trough moving across the Northwest. 
The NAM and 12z ECMWF are more progressive -- moving energy
eastward through the base of the trough into the northern Rockies,
whereas the GFS and 12z Canadian dig more energy south along the
coast.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Pereira