Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1238 AM EDT Sat Aug 25 2018

Valid Aug 25/0000 UTC thru Aug 28/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z NAM/GFS Model Evaluation and Preliminary Preferences and
Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend, not 12Z UKMET/CMC over northern
Plains Day 3
Confidence: Above Average

Good agreement remains with large scale features through the
forecast period with the 00Z NAM/GFS. This includes the
deamplification of the upper trough as it moves northeast across
Great Lakes and into southeast Canada today and the amplification
of the trough over the western US and progression east through
Sunday.

The 00Z GFS/NAM are in excellent agreement with the trough motion
over the northern Great Plains Monday and have shifted south from
prior runs. This is in fair agreement with the 12Z ECMWF, but
farther south than that 12Z UKMET/CMC, the most notable difference
in terms from mass field and precipitation in this three day
outlook.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson