Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EDT Sat Aug 25 2018

Valid Aug 25/0000 UTC thru Aug 28/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

Final 00Z Model Evaluation and Preferences with Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-UKMET Blend
Confidence: Above Average

Good agreement remains with large scale features through the
forecast period with the 00Z NAM/GFS. This includes the
deamplification of the upper trough as it moves northeast across
Great Lakes and into southeast Canada today and the amplification
of the trough over the western US and progression east to the
Great Lakes through Monday.

The 00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CMC are in excellent agreement in terms of
pressures and precipitation through Monday with the trough motion
over the northern Great Plains. The 00Z UKMET remains farther
north with its Day 3 axis of precipitation over the northern
Plains to the northern Great Lakes; enough so to warrant its
removal from the consensus.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson