Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 109 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018 Valid Aug 26/0000 UTC thru Aug 29/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Preliminary Model Evaluation and Preferences with Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: General model blend through early Tue, then a non-Canadian blend late Tue into early Wed Confidence: Average For the majority of the larger-scale features, a general model compromise, that includes the 00z NAM, GFS, UKMET and the 12z ECMWF and Canadian Global, may be applied. The primary exception is late in the period as the upper trough axis moves from Plains into the Mississippi valley late Tue-early Wed. The 12z Canadian Global becomes a notable outlier at that point -- becoming slower and more amplified than the other models. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Pereira