Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Valid Aug 26/0000 UTC thru Aug 29/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation and Preferences with Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Average

For the majority of the larger-scale features, a general model
compromise, that includes the 00z NAM, GFS, UKMET, ECMWF and
Canadian Global, may be applied.  However, late in the period as
the mid-upper trough axis moves from Plains into the Mississippi
valley late Tue-early Wed, recommend giving less weight to the
Canadian Global.  Although its 00z run has trended notably less
amplified and more progressive, it remains along the trailing edge
of the deterministic model solutions late Tue into early Wed.  In
contrast, the GFS moves to the leading edge of the model solutions
with the low to mid level wave moving across the Great Lakes early
Wed. In addition to the deterministic model consensus, the 00z
GEFS Mean also suggests the GFS may be too fast with the timing of
the wave across the Great Lakes Wed morning. 

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Pereira