Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1257 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

Valid Aug 27/0000 UTC thru Aug 30/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z NAM/GFS Model Evaluation and Preliminary Preferences with
Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: 00Z GFS/NAM/UKMET
Confidence: Average

Main feature in the short term is a broadening trough across the
north-central CONUS. The 00Z GFS and NAM are in line with a
slightly less amplified wave, which leads to a faster surface low
moving along the front across the central Great Lakes (with
precipitation focused on the eastern Great Lakes) Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

The 12Z ECMWF/CMC favor slower motion and cluster well, but are
quite different by Day 3 compared the preferred blend. Suspect the
00Z runs will be closer to the GFS/NAM/UKMET solution.

There is good agreement on a mid-level trough developing off the
northern CA coast Wednesday, though this is of little to no
precipitation consequence in the short term.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson