Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

Valid Aug 27/0000 UTC thru Aug 30/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation and Preferences with Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: 00Z GFS/NAM/UKMET/CMC
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

Main feature in the short term is a trough lifting northeast
across the north-central CONUS with a secondary trough entering
the Northwest Wednesday. The 00Z GFS, NAM, UKMET, and CMC are in
line with a slightly less amplified wave, which leads to a surface
low moving along the front across the central Great Lakes (with
precipitation focused on the eastern Great Lakes) Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

The 00Z ECMWF came into better agreement with the consensus, but
is still slower and farther north with precipitation. Therefore it
remains out of the consensus.

There is good agreement on a mid-level trough developing off the
northern CA coast Wednesday, though this is of little to no
precipitation consequence in the short term.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson