Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1248 PM EDT Mon Aug 27 2018

Valid Aug 27/1200 UTC thru Aug 31/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation and Preferences
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: Blend of the 12Z GFS/NAM

One medium wavelength trough will lift through the Upper Midwest
toward eastern Canada, dragging a cold front into the
central/eastern United States. Another medium wavelength trough
will drop in to replace it over the northern / northwestern part
of the country.

Models are generally in good agreement on the movement and
evolution of these large scale features through 31/00Z. There are
somewhat larger differences at the surface, especially over
Canada, but model differences over the U.S. appear minimal. The
12Z NAM and GFS fit well with the 00Z global model consensus as
well as the latest available GEFS and ECMWF Ensemble runs.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Burke/Weiss