Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1228 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Valid Aug 28/1200 UTC thru Sep 01/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation with Preference
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: 00Z CMC/ECMWF and ECENS mean

Medium wavelength trough across the Midwest will eject northeast
into Friday
trailing a cold front into the Southeast. A more significant
trough will
rotate around the North Pacific high and approach the West Coast
late Friday.

Models in generally good agreement into Friday with subtle
differences in
wave amplitude across the East leading to minimal positional or
intensity
differences of the surface cold front. A general blend of 12Z NCEP
guidance
with 00Z non-NCEP models is recommended through 31/12Z. Model
differences then
develop with the trough digging into the West on Friday and the
GFS/NAM appear
too flat with the depth of this feature as it enters California -
based on the
ridge position and highly amplified flow over the Pacific. The 00Z
CMC and
ECMWF are in general agreement with the large scale evolution into
California
and have support from the ECENS mean. This suggests more weight on
these models
later in the forecast period.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Weiss/Burke