Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

Valid Aug 29/0000 UTC thru Sep 01/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation with Preference and Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-UKMET General Blend
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

A trough will eject from the Midwest to eastern Canada through
Thursday, with an associated cold front sagging into the Southeast
and stalling Friday. The next trough entering the Pacific
Northwest today will drift east, maintaining a positive tilt as
the axis reaches the northern Great Plains Friday.

Models are in good agreement into Day 3. The one exception remains
the 00Z UKMET which is farther north with the ridge over the Great
Lakes ahead of the trough Friday, though the 00Z solution is
farther south than the 12Z (but still north of the 00Z consensus).

Model differences are minimal with the 00Z suite on the trough
digging over the West on Friday. The 00Z NCEP guidance remains
flatter with this wave compared to non-NCEP guidance. However, the
impact to precipitation placement downstream (over the upper
Midwest) is minimal. The precipitation difference in Day 3 QPF
with the 00Z UKMET limited, but the consensus is farther south
with the front in the east and is suggested to be apart of model
blends.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson