Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1214 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

Valid Aug 30/0000 UTC thru Sep 02/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation with final preference
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS and 12Z UKMET
Confidence: Slightly above average

The large scale upper pattern will feature a series of progressive
shortwaves advancing across southern Canada and the northern tier
of the U.S. through the short range period, with the general
tendency for a mean layer trough to focus over the Intermountain
West and a rather strong mid level subtropical ridge to remain in
place over the southern and eastern U.S.

The biggest differences were noted across the southwestern U.S.
with the 12Z ECMWF definitely among the strongest  solutions with
the degree of troughing here that evolves this weekend. Also, the
00Z NAM and 12Z CMC are more out of tolerance with the model
consensus and ensemble means across the south-central Canada.
Elsewhere, the NAM was noted to be strongest with a disorganized
low-level wave over the northwest Gulf of Mexico by Saturday.

Based on the latest clustering of solutions, a preference toward a
blend of the 00Z GFS and 12Z UKMET will be preferred for now
across the CONUS and this has support from the 18Z GEFS mean and
the 12Z ECENS mean.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison