Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Valid Aug 31/1200 UTC thru Sep 04/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation...with latest model preferences and confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: Blend of the 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET
Confidence: Average

Ridging over the eastern U.S. will remain in the forecast through
Monday while mean upper troughing remains over the western U.S.
Smaller scale shortwaves are expected to propagate northeastward
from the central and southern Rockies into the Great Lakes region
embedded within a weaker southern stream jet while a series of
stronger shortwaves move through the stronger northern stream flow
across the northwestern U.S.

Overall mass field agreement among the deterministic guidance is
fair, but detail differences and QPF differences are large.
Regarding an easterly wave currently in the central Gulf of
Mexico, the 12Z NAM remains on the stronger side of the model
guidance, as it has been, and continues to be an outlier. Farther
north, the 12Z CMC is out of line with the placement of a
northeast/southwest oriented frontal boundary across the Great
Lakes/Midwest for Monday, with the 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET showing
similarly and in decent agreement with the latest ensemble means.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto