Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Thu Sep 06 2018

Valid Sep 06/1200 UTC thru Sep 10/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z model evaluation...with latest preferences and confidence
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...Tropical Depression Gordon...
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Preference: General model blend
            Less weight on 12Z ECMWF and UKMET
Confidence: Average

The 12Z ECMWF and UKMET continue to accelerate the surface low
faster to the Northeast over the Ohio River Valley this weekend,
relative to the ensemble means and the other deterministic models.
The 12Z GEFS mean is a little faster than the 12Z GFS, though,
which is on the slower end of the distribution. The ECMWF also
shows a northward displacement to the upper level jet streak, with
higher heights than the other deterministic models over the Ohio
River Valley. This leads its QPF max to be further north than the
other models, and the UKMET is generally faster with the timing.
The preference was to generally blend these tendencies to end up
closer to the ensemble means, or use a general model blend that
placed less weight on the ECMWF and UKMET.


...Remainder of CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Elsewhere across the CONUS, deterministic models were contained
well within the model ensemble spread envelope and produced
similar forecasts overall. Although there are some detail
differences, a general model blend was preferred.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers