Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 PM EDT Fri Sep 07 2018

Valid Sep 07/1200 UTC thru Sep 11/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z model evaluation...with final preferences and confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: 00Z UKMET, 00Z ECMWF, 12Z NAM
Confidence: Average

Tropical Depression Gordon is forecast to become extratropical in
the next day or so as it becomes absorbed into a front, and
therefore most of the QPF will be related to fronts over the
central and eastern CONUS in the next few days. The forecast for
Gordon, and the eventual extratropical low that will develop,
closely follows a model consensus. The main concern for WPC QPF
was the timing and location of rainfall maxima. The 12Z GFS was a
little slower and further south with its surface low position by
Sunday Night and Monday, which also leads to a similar southward
displacement of the QPF max over the Northeast. The preference was
to lean toward the ECMWF, NAM, and UKMET in particular for the WPC
QPF.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers