Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1239 PM EDT Sat Sep 08 2018

Valid Sep 08/1200 UTC thru Sep 12/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Deterministic models show fairly good agreement through the
duration of the short term forecast period -- into early next
week. The mass fields are generally contained within the envelope
of ensemble spread, and thus WPC QPF generally followed a
broad-based blend approach in most areas of the CONUS. Into the
Day 3 period, the 00Z ECMWF was a little slower with the
progression of QPF in the Northeast, so less weight was placed on
the ECMWF in that time period in the Northeast.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers