Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 AM EDT Sun Sep 09 2018

Valid Sep 09/0000 UTC thru Sep 12/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
 Exception: None
Confidence: Above average


07z update:
The 00z CMC resolved some of the timing differences off the
Pacific NW coast, and the 00z UKMET/ECMWF and GEFS mean did not
vary significantly to break from the general model blend
preference across the CONUS at above average confidence.

---Prior Discussion---
Deterministic models and ensemble mean solutions show remarkably
similar place/strength and timing to the major sensible weather
inducing mass fields/systems.   The 00z NAM is a bit stronger with
the surface wave of former "Gordon" moving through the upper Ohio
Valley into NY and the northeast, amplifying stronger moisture/QPF
flux a bit further north than the remaining deterministic
guidance, but still well with the probabilities to have good
confidence in its inclusion in a general model blend.  The two
shortwaves and surface lows that are currently and will develop
across southern Canada continue to come to a common solution.  The
00z NAM is a bit further south, while the 12z CMC is a bit slower
with the second surface wave on Monday into Tues, but the
orientation/timing of the front in the CONUS also supports a
general model blend at above average confidence. 

The only significant departure was related to the surface wave and
closed low dropping along the Pacific Northwest coast Tuesday into
Wednesday...here the CMC departs from strong consensus (including
ensembles/continuity) to shift south faster, atypical of the model
in general.  It is minor in the overall sense, but a Non-CMC
solution would be best for this difference for a stronger/cleaner
blend.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Gallina