Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 PM EDT Sun Sep 09 2018

Valid Sep 09/1200 UTC thru Sep 13/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation Including Preferences and Forecast Confidence
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...Overall Synoptic Pattern across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Above average

Models continue to be in good agreement with their mass field
forecasts over the next few days, and all the deterministic models
are generally contained well within the envelope of ensemble
spread. Although a few minor QPF differences remain, the models
have also converged with their QPF as well, which increases
confidence in the forecast. Given the overall similarity of the
forecasts in the short term part of the forecast, a general model
blend is the preference.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers