Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1221 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Valid Sep 14/1200 UTC thru Sep 18/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12z NAM/GFS evaluation with preliminary model preferences
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Any NAM/GFS initialization errors present do not seem to degrade
their short range forecasts.


Hurricane Florence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference:  00z Canadian closest to 15z advisory

The 00z ECMWF is slow with the system while the 00z UKMET/12z GFS
are the quickest, with the 00z Canadian wavering in between these
extremes.  The 15z NHC advisory is closest to the 00z Canadian
which is preferred by default for mass fields.  Please refer to
the latest NHC discussions and products for more detailed
information on Hurricane Florence.  Consult excessive rainfall
discussions from WPC for more on the model choice for the rainfall
forecast.


System moving across southern TX
Positively tilted trough extending into the West
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The guidance shows good agreement with these systems.  A
compromise of the 12z GFS, 12z NAM, 00z Canadian, 00z UKMET, and
00z ECMWF is advised with above average confidence.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Roth