Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
120 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

Valid Sep 17/0000 UTC thru Sep 20/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z NAM/GFS evaluation with preliminary preferences and forecast
confidence
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...Overall preference for the lower 48...
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Preference: 12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

The 00Z NAM stands out the greatest from the preferred model
solution across the lower 48 from west to east. The 00Z NAM is
faster with the track of Tropical Depression Florence and its
eventual transition to a post-tropical/extra-tropical low across
the Northeast, it is faster with a frontal wave across the Midwest
on Wednesday and the NAM is a strong outlier with a possible
Pacific tropical system being monitored by NHC for development
near the Baja Peninsula. Overall, a 00Z GFS/ECMWF blend is
recommended across the lower 48, eventually with more weight on
the 12Z ECMWF given trends and ensemble means with the timing of a
trough across the western CONUS.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto