Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 AM EDT Tue Sep 18 2018

Valid Sep 18/0000 UTC thru Sep 21/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation with Final Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall preference for the entire CONUS...
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Preference: Blend of the 00Z ECMWF/GFS
Confidence: Average

The biggest differences across the lower 48 through Friday morning
involves the track of a mid-upper level trough from the western
U.S. into the northern Plains by week's end. Out ahead of this
trough, low pressure will organize along a front and track through
the Great Lakes into Canada. A 00Z GFS/ECMWF blend is recommended
given this blend is closest to the ensemble mean position and
holds good continuity with the previous WPC preference. The 00Z
NAM was perhaps the least preferred model given it is the fastest
with the timing of the trough progression across the north-central
U.S. and is not in line with ensemble guidance.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Otto