Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1238 AM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Valid Oct 10/0000 UTC thru Oct 13/1200 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 00Z Model Evaluation...with latest preferences and confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF Confidence: Slightly above average There are some minor differences with the longwave trough position and strength by Wednesday evening across the upper Midwest, likely due to how quickly the northern and southern stream energy phases. The 00Z NAM is a bit stronger and more pronounced with the tilt of the shortwave, closing off over the Dakotas which is similar to the 12Z CMC. Meanwhile, the 00Z GFS lines up reasonably well with the 12Z ECMWF/UKMET solutions which keep the trough a tad more open as it lifts across the northern tier. With the surface low track across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, the guidance is very well clustered. In the wake of the upper Midwest trough/closed low, there will be two additional northern stream shortwaves dropping southeast from Canada, with one crossing the northern Plains and Midwest Friday through Saturday, and then arriving across the Eastern U.S. on Sunday. A secondary shortwave will then amplify down toward the northern High Plains by Sunday. The 00Z GFS becomes a fast outlier with the first of these two shortwaves as the remaining guidance led by the 00Z NAM, 12Z UKMET and 12Z ECMWF are slower. The 12Z CMC was just a bit faster than this consensus, but slower than the GFS. Meanwhile, regarding the secondary shortwave evolution into the northern Plains by Sunday, the 00Z NAM becomes a bit of a deep outlier. Elsewhere, the guidance all supports a closed low evolution off the southern California coast by Friday and Saturday. The 00Z NAM tends to retrograde more energy off to the west compared to the global models. Based on the latest model spread and clustering of solutions across the CONUS for this period, a blend of the 00Z GFS, 12Z UKMET and 12Z ECMWF will be preferred. ...Hurricane Michael... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: See the latest NHC forecast advisory Powerful Hurricane Michael will lift north and be crossing the FL panhandle within the next 24 hours, and will then rapidly recurve northeastward across the interior of the Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic states through the 48 hour time-frame. The 12Z ECMWF is the slowest solution, with the 00Z NAM and to a lesser extent the 12Z UKMET the faster solutions. The NAM is also a bit right of the model consensus. The 00Z GFS is generally in between the ECMWF and UKMET solutions with respect to timing. The 03Z NHC forecast track is a bit faster than the model consensus and is close to a blend of the GFS and UKMET through about 48 hours, and then is more like the UKMET thereafter. ...Hurricane Sergio... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: See the latest NHC forecast advisory The global models all continue to agree on recurving Hurricane Sergio off to the northeast toward the central Baja California peninsula over the next couple of days, with the storm likely making a landfall here on Friday. Thereafter, the storm will begin to lose its identity as it traverses northwest mainland Mexico, but its moisture and remnant mid-level energy will impact portions of the Southwest and also the southern Plains. The 12Z CMC/ECMWF solutions are the slowest, with the 00Z GFS the fastest. The 00Z NAM and 12Z UKMET split the difference. The 03Z NHC forecast track is a bit faster than the model consensus and is closest to the GFS solution. Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml 500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml Orrison