Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Valid Oct 12/0000 UTC thru Oct 15/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with latest preferences and confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS... 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: Blend of the 12/00Z ECMWF/UKMET/NAM
Confidence: Average

The general pattern across the CONUS will feature a longwave
trough amplifying over the central/western US, with a broad, flat
ridge that develops late in the weekend over the Eastern U.S.
following the passage of a shortwave trough today and Saturday. A
high amplitude ridge extending from the eastern North Pacific into
British Columbia should be anchored there through early early
Monday morning.

There is good model agreement on the frontal passage across the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US today with high pressure building in
across the Central Plains.  However, the model agreement is not as
strong with respect to shortwave energy dropping into the Upper
Midwest.  Based on the latest model spread and clustering of
solutions across the continental U.S. for this period, combined
with models maintaining good run to run continuity, combining
elements of the 12/00Z NAM/UKMET/ECMWF should be a good starting
point that captures the essence of the large scale flow pattern
while addressing differences in timing through Day 3.


...Tropical Storm Michael...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: See the latest NHC forecast advisory

There is good clustering in the global models that show Michael
exiting off the Mid-Atlantic coast through this afternoon.

...Hurricane Sergio...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: See the latest NHC forecast advisory

The 12/00Z runs of the NAM, GFS and UKMET were close to the NHC
track through the day today.  Beyond that, the global models tend
to lose a surface reflection as Sergio crosses the mountains of
northern Mexico, although the GFS still maintained a 850 mb
relative vorticity center that was close to the NHC track into New
Mexico.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Bann