Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1231 PM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

Valid Oct 12/1200 UTC thru Oct 16/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with latest preferences and confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS... 
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Preference: General model blend, greatest weight to 12Z GFS
            and 00Z ECMWF overall
Confidence: Slightly above average

A digging wave from Canada, and the closed low off California
finally pushing into the Southwest, are likely to combine to lead
to an amplified trough by early next week. The trough should be
positively tilted and extend from the Upper Midwest into the
Southwest. However, it appears the phasing will not be complete,
and the northern stream wave should still be relatively
progressive, with the southern stream wave stalling over the
Southwest.

As the amplified pattern evolves, the deterministic models are
fairly similar overall. There are some detail differences -- for
example, the GFS tends to be faster with the cold front reaching
the East Coast, with the ECMWF on the slow end -- but a general
compromise across the board offers a reasonable forecast. In terms
of the height fields aloft, the deterministic models are all
contained well within ensemble spread, and they are also fairly
similar to ensemble means.

Therefore, the preference is to lean toward a general model blend,
with the greatest weight placed on the GFS and ECMWF.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers