Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1239 AM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Valid Oct 13/0000 UTC thru Oct 16/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with latest preferences and confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS... 
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Preference: General model blend, greatest weight to 13/00Z GFS
            and 12/12Z ECMWF overall
Confidence: Average

A digging wave from Canada, and the closed low off California
finally pushing into the Southwest, are likely to combine to lead
to an amplified trough over the western part of North America by
early next week. The trough should be positively tilted and extend
from the Upper Midwest into the Southwest. However, it appears the
phasing will not be complete, and the northern stream wave should
still be relatively progressive, with the southern stream wave
stalling over the Southwest.

As the amplified pattern evolves, the global deterministic models
and their respective ensembles are fairly similar overall. There
are some detail differences -- for example, the GFS tends to be
faster with the cold front reaching the East Coast, with the ECMWF
on the slow end.  A general compromise across the board offers a
reasonable forecast. In terms of the height fields aloft, the
deterministic models are all contained well within ensemble
spread, and they are also fairly similar to ensemble means.

Therefore, the preference is still to lean toward a general model
blend, with the greatest weight placed on the GFS and ECMWF.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Bann