Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1228 PM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018

Valid Oct 13/1200 UTC thru Oct 17/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with latest preferences and confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS... 
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Preference: General model blend, less weight on 12Z GFS
Confidence: Slightly above average

A large positively-tilted trough will split into two distinct
components: a closed low that will stall over the Southwest, and a
more progressive wave pushing through the northern tier of states.
With respect to the height fields aloft and thickness fields,
there is generally very good model agreement over the next few
days. The spread is limited, and deterministic models are well
within the ensemble spread that does exist. Therefore, the
preference is to go with a multi-model blend to account for small
detail differences. Less weight will be placed on the 12Z GFS, as
it is faster with the progression of the northern stream wave,
pushing QPF maxima east of other models. The trend on the 12Z NAM
and 12Z GFS has been to slow down the progression of this wave,
closer to the remaining deterministic models, and therefore,
greater weight will be placed on the slightly slower progression.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers