Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1225 PM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018

Valid Oct 14/1200 UTC thru Oct 18/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with latest preferences and confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS... 
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Preference: Non-CMC model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Model agreement continues to be very good overall through the
first few days of the forecast, with limited ensemble spread. This
is leading to generally consistent QPF from the deterministic
models. The largest differences are with (1) the 12Z GFS
continuing to shift precip off the Northeast coast faster than
other models, and (2) the eastward extent of the heavy precip in
the Arklatex region. The GFS has had a fast bias in the Northeast
for the past several runs, so the preference there is to trend
toward the scenario depicted by the other available models.

In the southern half of the country, the 00Z CMC shows the closed
low in the Southwest kicking east more than the other models, and
given the lack of any mechanism to dislodge the low, the
preference is to exclude the CMC as it would substantially affect
the QPF forecast in the Southwest region. Otherwise, there is good
agreement among the deterministic models of a QPF maximum in
Texas, but there is less agreement on the precise eastward extent
of QPF into the Southeast. The 12Z GFS is more limited in that
respect, while the 00Z ECMWF and 12Z NAM are wetter. There is no
strong preference based on an evaluation of the mass fields, so a
general model blend is preferred to emphasize the QPF max in Texas
while allowing for the possibility of additional rainfall further
east along the front.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers