Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1247 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Valid Oct 15/0000 UTC thru Oct 18/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with latest preferences and confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS... 
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Preference: Non-CMC model blend, slightly less ECMWF weight in
confluent region over OH/TN Valley
Confidence: Slightly above average

Model agreement continues to be very good overall through the
first few days of the forecast, with limited ensemble spread. The
largest differences are with 14/12Z ECMWF being a bit slower than
other model guidance late on Day 2 over portions of the OH/TN
Valleys.  Would tend to think that the confluent nature of the
flow would favor the non ECMWF ideas.  Farther north, still think
that the GFS may be continuing to show its fast bias in the
Northeast, so the preference there is to trend toward the non GFS.


In the southern half of the country, the 14/12Z CMC lifted the
closed low in the Southwest more northeast or easterly than the
other models, and given the lack of any mechanism to dislodge the
low, the preference is towards the solution life the ECMWF/GFS
which are slow to move the system out. 

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Bann