Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Valid Oct 15/0000 UTC thru Oct 18/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with latest preferences and confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS... 
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Preference: Slightly less ECMWF weight in confluent region over
OH/TN Valley
Confidence: Slightly above average

Model agreement continues to be very good overall through the
first few days of the forecast, with limited ensemble spread. The
largest differences are with 15/00Z ECMWF remaining a bit on the
slower side of the model guidance late on Day 2 over portions of
the OH/TN Valleys.  Would tend to think that the confluent nature
of the flow would favor the non ECMWF ideas.  Farther north, still
think that the GFS may be continuing to show its fast bias in the
Northeast, so the preference there is to trend toward the non GFS.
 Given the changes made by the GFS and ECMWF at 00Z, the overall
model spread has diminished.

In the southern half of the country, the 15/00Z CMC made a shift
toward the earlier model consensus and has gotten in better
agreement with the ensemble means and other operational models.  A
general model compromise is fine here.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Bann