Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1239 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

Valid Oct 15/1200 UTC thru Oct 19/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with latest preferences and confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Blend of the 12Z GFS/00Z UKMET and 00Z ECMWF
Confidence: Slightly above average

Model agreement continues to be very good overall over the next
few days across the CONUS as it relates to the troughing over the
Great Lakes/Northeast, and the flat ridging across the Gulf Coast
state and Southeast. The main differences this period are out over
the Four Corners region with the details of the trough/closed low
impacting the region here. The 12Z NAM by late in the period tends
to tuck its energy farther back to the west compared to the global
model consensus and also lowers heights just a tad more. A new
shortwave trough will be noted up over the northern Plains on
Thursday, and the 00Z CMC and 12Z NAM both are a little more out
of tolerance here with this feature compared to the global models.
Based on the latest model clustering and trends, a blend of the
12Z GFS, 00Z UKMET and 00Z ECMWF will be preferred.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison