Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Valid Oct 16/1200 UTC thru Oct 20/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with latest preferences and confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Model agreement continues to be very good overall over the next
few days across the CONUS as it relates to the troughing over the
Great Lakes/Northeast, and the flat ridging across the Gulf Coast
state and Southeast U.S.. There had been some minor differences
relating the closed low/trough over the Four Corners region, but
the latest guidance is well clustered here with this system
through the end of the week. Therefore, a general model blend will
be preferred across the CONUS for this period.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison