Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Valid Oct 31/1200 UTC thru Nov 04/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: General Model Blend
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

12Z guidance remains in agreement synoptic flow pattern and QPF
over the CONUS through Friday. The strength of the shortwave
entering the northern Rockies Friday night still greatest in the
12Z GFS. The 12Z UKMET no longer closes the eastern CONUS
negatively tilted trough in the northeast, keeping it more in line
with the consensus.

QPF is similar among 12Z guidance through Day 2 and diverges on
Day 3 in both the north-central CONUS and the Northeast. Timing
and strength differences are subtle, but noted over the northeast.
The UKMET is strongest with the Day 3 New England low with the
heaviest precipitation. Progression of shortwave activity over the
north-central CONUS varies on Day 3, though magnitude is generally
similar among global guidance. A general model blend is therefore
recommended.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson