Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1238 AM EDT Thu Nov 01 2018

Valid Nov 01/0000 UTC thru Nov 04/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General Model Blend
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

Over the next few days, the current shortwave over Texas will
phase with a northern stream shortwave to deepen/carve a trough
over the Great Lakes and Northeast region. This will be quickly
replaced by another mid-level trough late in the weekend across
the central Plains while the Pacific Northwest continues to see
periodic shortwaves come onshore.

The 00z guidance is in good agreement with the synoptic scale
pattern through the first 48-60 hours. The biggest differences lie
late in the forecast period with respect to the shortwave coming
out of the Rockies into the central/southern Plains on Sunday. The
00z GFS is a bit of an outlier with its vort max placement and
strength, on the southern side of the forecast spread. Its
solution differs quite a bit from the 18z GEFS mean as well. The
rest of the deterministic guidance is in good agreement, showing a
weaker solution with the main vort max tracking across
Kansas/Missouri. The 00z NAM is in decent agreement with the 12z
ECMWF with the overall heights pattern.

The rest of the CONUS shows little or significant variability. As
such, a general model blend is recommended with slightly less
weight given toward the 00z GFS across the central US.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor