Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1232 AM EDT Fri Nov 02 2018

Valid Nov 02/0000 UTC thru Nov 05/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

Through the forecast period, the synoptic pattern over the CONUS
will feature longwave troughing generally over the central US.
Strong shortwave over the central Plains will deepen and become
negatively titled as it treks across the Northeast US tonight into
Saturday. It will be followed by another shortwave moving out of
the Rockies Saturday into Sunday. The Pacific NW will see a parade
of storm systems over the next several days.

Overall, the models are in good agreement with the upper level
flow pattern through 84 hours. There are some subtle timing
differences with the secondary vort max across the central Plains
Saturday night into Sunday, but the differences are substantially
less than 24 hours ago and now within the ensemble spread. Some
more notable differences lie in the surface fields, with the GFS
faster with the surface low moving out of the central US compared
to the UKMET/CMC/ECMWF. The NAM lies in between, but still on the
faster side compared to the consensus.

For the Pacific NW, after brief ridging aloft Saturday, another
storm system will push into the coast Saturday night into Sunday.
Here, the 12z ECMWF is faster compared to the 00z GFS/NAM but not
by substantially much. And it is noted that the QPF differences
weren't significant either.

Based on the latest model clustering, trends and ensemble spread,
a blend of the 00z GFS and 12Z ECMWF will be preferred.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor