Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Sat Nov 03 2018

Valid Nov 03/0000 UTC thru Nov 06/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: Blend of the 00z GFS, 12z ECMWF/UKMET
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

A series of shortwaves dropping through the flow across the
central US will act to keep longwave troughing in place through
early to mid next week. Active weather will likely develop as a
result with waves of low pressure lifting through portions of the
CONUS.

In general, the initial 03.00z model guidance is showing good
run-to-run and model consistency with respect to the main synoptic
features. The strong shortwave currently over the lower Ohio
Valley will sharpen and become negatively tilted as it pivots into
the Northeast US and New England. In its wake, another wave over
the northern Rockies will drop into the central Plains. Both of
these features are well agreed on in the global models. At the
surface, one area of low pressure will move across New England
while a second area will deepen and lift through the Upper Midwest
by Sunday. The model clustering here has improved considerably in
the last 24 hours, though there remains some QPF differences as
well as thermal profiles, with the NAM being on the colder side of
the guidance. Finally, another storm system will push onshore in
the Pacific Northwest bringing widespread rain to the region. The
00z NAM was a bit stronger/more amplified compared to the rest of
the guidance. With this in mind, a general model blend of the
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET will be recommended across the CONUS.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor