Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
134 AM EST Sun Nov 04 2018

Valid Nov 04/0000 UTC thru Nov 07/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Blend of the 00z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

07z update:The 00z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC showed very little variability
with its mass fields compared to the 00z GFS through 84 hours.
Some minor timing differences were noted with the frontal passage
across the lower Ohio Valley and TN Valley on Tuesday morning, but
these are within the ensemble spread. QPF fields still show some
differences due to convective issues, but overall not too bad for
the end of day 2 and into day 3. As a result, will continue to
prefer a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET.

---previous discussion---
Longwave troughing will generally remain across the CONUS through
the forecast period with a couple of different shortwaves rotating
through, bringing active weather to parts of the country.

One shortwave, currently analyzed over the southern Plains, will
lift northeast today into the Great Lakes region. A surface low
near Kansas City will move northeast toward Wisconsin. In general,
there are no major model differences here with respect to the mass
fields.

A stronger weather system develop early next week across the
central Plains, mid-MS River and the lower Ohio Valleys. There
remains some differences in the surface low track. The NAM is
furthest northwest over northern Illinois by 06z Tuesday while the
CMC has the low across TN at the same. The remaining guidance
(GFS/ECMWF/UKMET) are fairly similar in location and strength. All
of the models have this system deepening as it moves over the
Great Lakes. The NAM is too fast with the frontal passage across
the lower Ohio and TN River Valleys. A stripe of heavy rain is
likely along and ahead of this frontal passage associated with the
convection that is expected to form. That surface front sweeps
through most of the country, except for the Gulf coast states
where it is expected to stall/linger into the middle of next week.


Overall, a general blend of the 00z GFS with the 12z ECMWF/UKMET
is preferred for this model cycle.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor