Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
205 AM EST Mon Nov 05 2018

Valid Nov 05/0000 UTC thru Nov 08/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: 00z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET         
Confidence: Slightly above average

07z update: No significant changes noted with the rest of the 00z
guidance. Outside of QPF differences associated with the
convection across TN/KY tonight into early Tuesday morning, the
rest of the mass fields and QPF appear to be in reasonable
agreement. As such, a blend of the 00z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET is still
preferred.

---previous discussion---
Longwave troughing will persist over the central/eastern US while
the west coast begins to see ridging aloft toward day 3
(Thursday). This will keep active weather in place across the
central US. Models in fairly good agreement through 24-36 hours
taking the current shortwave trough over Missouri into the Great
Lakes region later Monday. A secondary shortwave will drop through
the Rockies quickly behind it, spawning a surface low to trek
across the mid-MS and lower OH Valley Monday night. Behind that
frontal passage, much cooler air spills into the northern tier
associated with sprawling Canadian high pressure.

With the strong frontal passage across the mid-South and lower
Ohio Valley Monday evening, while mass fields are somewhat
agreeable, there are considerable QPF differences, mainly in
magnitude across KY/TN. As the axis of heavy rain shifts into the
Northeast US, there is better agreement due to less convective
feedback issues.

For the Pacific NW, the GFS/NAM/ECMWF and to some degree the CMC
all depict a similar strength shortwave dropping into the coast
Monday afternoon followed by another feature Tuesday night into
Wednesday. By the end of the forecast period ridging is likely to
set up along the west coast, keeping storm tracks well north of
the area.

For this cycle, a model blend of the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET is preferred.
Some weight toward the NAM can also be given for the Pacific NW
where model consensus is higher.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor