Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
152 PM EST Mon Nov 05 2018

Valid Nov 05/1200 UTC thru Nov 09/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: Non-CMC blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

---19Z UPDATE---
No change to the preliminary preference or reasoning. Overall,
model similarity continues to be relatively high, and the 12Z CMC
remains different with how it handles the digging trough in the
Northern Plains.

---PREVIOUS DISCUSSION---
Over the next few days, model agreement is quite good with very
limited model spread in the height fields aloft. This implies
higher confidence in the timing and placement of major synoptic
features. The most spread seems to exist with a wave that will be
digging sharply south-southeast into the Northern Plains by late
Thursday and Friday. The 00Z CMC shows a significant displacement
to the south and east relative to the other models, with
considerably lower heights over the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes. This does not have much support, so the CMC was
generally excluded from the model preference.

Otherwise, most deterministic model mass fields are centered well
within the full NAEFS+ECMWF ensemble spread. Therefore, a general
blend was the overall preference. Less weight was placed on the
00Z ECMWF and UKMET for the WPC QPF in the Southeast, as those
models showed considerably more rainfall north of the surface
front. The preference was closer to the GFS in this region, given
the strong high pressure and associated drier air mass that is
expected to be settling into the Mississippi River Valley behind
the front.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers