Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1145 PM EST Mon Nov 05 2018

Valid Nov 06/0000 UTC thru Nov 09/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-CMC blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Model agreement so far in the 00z cycle remains good among the
global guidance. Strong, negatively titled shortwave pushes
through the Great Lakes and Northeast region Tuesday into Tuesday
night. It will be followed by another shortwave dropping into the
northern Plains Thursday into Friday. Overall, longwave troughing
will continue over much of the central US with ridging over the
western US. With little spread in the forecast through 60 hours, a
general model blend can be used. However, there remains some
differences with the strength and position of the northern Plains
shortwave on Thursday/Friday. The CMC is more amplified, faster,
and digs further south compared to the rest of the guidance, which
is in rather good agreement. That shortwave will spawn a surface
low across the lower Ohio Valley. Differences in phasing between
the northern/southern stream energy is resulting in some notable
differences in QPF, especially across TN/KY/OH, with the NAM on
the higher end of the guidance. Otherwise, most deterministic
model mass fields are centered well within the full NAEFS+ECMWF
ensemble spread. Therefore, a general blend, excluding the CMC,
was the overall preference.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Taylor