Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1133 AM EST Wed Nov 07 2018

Valid Nov 07/1200 UTC thru Nov 11/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Despite some detail differences, the deterministic models show
similarity in their mass fields. Looking at the mid-upper level
height fields, the models are fairly clustered, and are situated
well within the envelope of ensemble spread. Therefore, the
preference overall is to trend toward a general model blend, with
slightly more weight given to the 12Z GFS along the Gulf Coast for
WPC QPF, as it keeps the heavier rainfall focused further south
and closer to the coast.

The primary feature of interest is the shortwave that will be
digging sharply into the Northern Plains, eventually leading to
cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes and a secondary low along the
coast of the Northeast. There are some differences -- the 12Z NAM
and 00Z UKMET are stronger with the wave and a little more
amplified, the 12Z GFS kicks it faster to the east on Saturday --
but the deterministic models still produce fairly similar QPF
patterns. The greatest weight was applied to the 12Z GFS and 00Z
ECMWF, which are most consistent throughout the CONUS, but a
general model blend was used overall to better account for the
full range of ensemble uncertainty.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers