Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1109 PM EST Wed Nov 07 2018

Valid Nov 08/0000 UTC thru Nov 11/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Preference: Blend of the 00Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF
Confidence: Slightly above average

Despite some detail differences, the deterministic models show
similarity in their mass fields on the large scale across the
CONUS. Looking at the mid-upper level height fields, the models
are generally well clustered, although the 00Z NAM is a bit
stronger than the global models with the amplifying trough/closed
low that crosses the Great Lakes region, the Northeast and
southeast Canada through the period. Meanwhile, the 12Z UKMET is
the weakest solution. Elsewhere across the CONUS, the models are
in good agreement with the details of shortwave energy digging
southeast across the northern Plains and upper Midwest, and also
the Great Basin where deeper layer northwest flow will be
prevalent. Meanwhile, the guidance has very good agreement in
showing a longwave ridge off the West Coast by the end of the
period. Overall, a blend of the 00Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF will be
preferred given their clustering and ensemble support.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison