Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
143 AM EST Thu Nov 08 2018

Valid Nov 08/0000 UTC thru Nov 11/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: Non-NAM blend
Confidence: Slightly above average

Despite some detail differences, the deterministic models show
similarity in their mass fields on the large scale across the
CONUS. Looking at the mid-upper level height fields, the models
are generally well clustered, although the 00Z NAM is a bit
stronger than the global models with the amplifying trough/closed
low that crosses the Great Lakes region, the Northeast and
southeast Canada through the period. Elsewhere across the CONUS,
the models are in good agreement with the details of shortwave
energy digging southeast across the northern Plains and upper
Midwest, and also the Great Basin where deeper layer northwest
flow will be prevalent. Although, the NAM is a bit stronger than
the global models with the shortwave energy crossing the northern
Plains. Meanwhile, the guidance has very good agreement in showing
a longwave ridge off the West Coast by the end of the period.
Overall, a non-NAM blend will be preferred based on the good
global model clustering and ensemble support.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison