Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1150 AM EST Thu Nov 08 2018

Valid Nov 08/1200 UTC thru Nov 12/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z NAM/GFS Model Evaluation...with Preliminary Preferences and
Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General Model Blend
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

Excellent agreement among global deterministic and ensemble
guidance, including the 12Z NAM/GFS for the positively tilted
trough over the north-central CONUS today swings east to the Great
Lakes Friday, becoming negatively tilted over the northeastern
CONUS Saturday before becoming vertically stacked over eastern
Quebec and Labrador. The 12Z GFS is still stronger with its
surface low and slightly more progressive. However, there is
minimal impact with QPF from the 12Z GFS and is in line with the
QPF consensus. Little other QPF through the 3 day period warrants
a general model blend with above normal confidence.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson