Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 PM EST Thu Nov 08 2018

Valid Nov 08/1200 UTC thru Nov 12/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General Model Blend
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

Excellent agreement among global deterministic and ensemble
guidance for the positively tilted trough over the north-central
CONUS today that swings east to the Great Lakes Friday, becoming
negatively tilted over the northeastern CONUS Saturday before
becoming vertically stacked over eastern Quebec and Labrador
Sunday. The 12Z GFS is still stronger and more northward
progressive with its surface low as it lifts north from the
eastern Great Lakes. However, there is minimal impact with QPF
from the 12Z GFS compared to the 12Z QPF consensus. Little other
QPF outside this system through the 3 day period warrants a
general model blend with above normal confidence.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson