Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1115 PM EST Thu Nov 08 2018

Valid Nov 09/0000 UTC thru Nov 12/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General Model Blend...through 60 hours
            Blend of the 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF...after 60 hours
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

Overall, very good agreement remains among the global
deterministic and ensemble guidance for the positively tilted
trough over the north-central CONUS that swings east to the Great
Lakes Friday, and then becoming negatively tilted over the
northeastern CONUS Saturday before becoming vertically stacked
over eastern Quebec and Labrador Sunday. Additional northern
stream shortwave energy will then be dropping south from Canada
and across the Intermountain West and adjacent areas of the
central and northern Plains Saturday and Sunday. The guidance
supports some stream separation over the Four Corners region by
early Monday at which time the 00Z NAM appears to be a bit too
slow with its digging shortwave trough. The 12Z UKMET and 12Z CMC
are among the sharpest of the models in swinging energy across
this region and suggest a possible closed low evolution over
southern CO or northern NM at the end of the period. The 00Z GFS
and 12Z ECMWF are a little weaker/flatter by comparison.

Based on the latest model trends and clustering, a general model
blend will be preferred through about 60 hours, followed by a
blend of the 00Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF thereafter across the CONUS.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison