Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
137 AM EST Fri Nov 09 2018

Valid Nov 09/0000 UTC thru Nov 12/1200 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

00Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General Model Blend...through 60 hours
            Blend of the 00Z GFS/ECMWF...after 60 hours
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

Overall, very good agreement remains among the global
deterministic and ensemble guidance for the positively tilted
trough over the north-central CONUS that swings east to the Great
Lakes Friday, and then becoming negatively tilted over the
northeastern CONUS Saturday before becoming vertically stacked
over eastern Quebec and Labrador Sunday. Additional northern
stream shortwave energy will then be dropping south from Canada
and across the Intermountain West and adjacent areas of the
central and northern Plains Saturday and Sunday. The guidance
supports some stream separation over the Four Corners region by
early Monday at which time the 00Z NAM appears to be a bit too
slow with its digging shortwave trough. Despite trending a bit
weaker, the 00Z UKMET is overall still the sharpest solution in
swinging energy across this region and suggests a possible closed
low evolution over southern CO or northern NM at the end of the
period. The 00Z CMC also trended weaker and is now very close to
the reasonably well clustered 00Z GFS/ECMWF solutions.

Based on the latest model trends and clustering, a general model
blend will be preferred through about 60 hours, followed by a
blend of the 00Z GFS/ECMWF thereafter across the CONUS.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Orrison