Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1158 AM EST Fri Nov 09 2018

Valid Nov 09/1200 UTC thru Nov 13/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z NAM/GFS Model Evaluation...with Preliminary Preferences and
Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General Model Blend...Day 1
            Blend of the 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...Days 2/3
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

Overall, very good agreement remains among the global
deterministic and ensemble guidance for the trough over the Great
Lakes Friday that becomes negatively tilted over the northeastern
CONUS Saturday before becoming vertically stacked over eastern
Quebec and Labrador Sunday. Another trough will shift southeast
from the northern Rockies Saturday and remain positively tilted as
it digs down the Plains to the central Rockies and Four Corners
region Sunday before shifting east onto the southern Plains
Monday. Progression of this trough is fairly consistent through
Monday with the 00Z UKMET farthest west with the axis Sunday and
Monday which results in precip displaced northwest from the
consensus. The southwesterly jet stream east of the trough axis
rapidly intensifies Sunday night with the 12Z NAM and 00Z CMC the
quickest developing. Based on these elements, the upper trough
position and intensification of the downstream jet, a preference
is given to the 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF for Days 2 and 3. The GFS
has trended northwest with its precip over the southern CONUS, so
the trend in the 12Z ECMWF will be important to see.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson