Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EST Fri Nov 09 2018

Valid Nov 09/1200 UTC thru Nov 13/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General Model Blend...Day 1
            Blend of the 12Z GFS/ECMWF...Days 2/3
Confidence: Slightly Above Average

Overall, very good agreement remains among the global
deterministic and ensemble guidance for the trough over the Great
Lakes Friday that becomes negatively tilted over the northeastern
CONUS Saturday before becoming vertically stacked over eastern
Quebec and Labrador Sunday. Another trough will shift southeast
from the northern Rockies Saturday and remain positively tilted as
it digs down the Plains to the central Rockies and Four Corners
region Sunday before shifting east onto the southern Plains
Monday. Progression of this trough axis is fairly consistent
through Monday with the 12Z UKMET trending closer to the global
deterministic consensus. However, the 12Z GFS/ECMWF has the best
agreement and is the preferred solution for this exiting trough.

The southwesterly jet stream east of the trough axis rapidly
intensifies Sunday night with the 12Z NAM still the quickest
developer, but fairly in line with the 12Z consensus.
Precipitation associated with this trough and open Gulf of Mexico
is varied with the preference given to the 12Z GFS/ECMWF which are
consistent over the TX panhandle, with jet driven precip into MO,
and a signal for heavy rain over the Deep South.

Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Jackson