Model Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1209 PM EST Thu Nov 15 2018

Valid Nov 15/1200 UTC thru Nov 19/0000 UTC

...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air
ingest...

12Z Model Evaluation...with Preferences and Confidence
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...Overall Pattern Across the CONUS...
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Preference: General model blend, weighted more toward 12Z GFS and
            00Z ECMWF by Days 2 and 3.
Confidence: Slightly above average

Deterministic model mass fields generally show good similarity
through much of the forecast, and thus the preference was toward a
broad model blend for the forecast. This was weighted more toward
the GFS and ECMWF on Days 2 and 3, as the NAM was slightly further
north with the placement of some QPF axes relative to those more
consistent models and ensemble means. However, the NAM and other
models (including some hi-res models) provided good inputs to the
Nor'easter on Day 1 of the forecast. The greatest amount of spread
with mid-upper level heights occurred with the positively tilted
wave digging into the Plains this weekend; less amplified models
had a faster progression, while more amplified models had a slower
progression. Little to no QPF was highlighted by the models with
this feature, so a general model blend appeared sufficient in that
region as well.


Model trends at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml
500 mb forecasts at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Lamers